Jordan Toothpaste: A Brand Health Diagnosis

Brand	Position	Key Strength
Colgate	Market Leader	Global trust, broad appeal, whitening
Zendium	Strong #2	Natural/gentle positioning
Sensodyne	Specialist	Sensitivity relief (functional niche)
Jordan	Mid-tier	??? (This is what we need to discover)

The Analysis Begins

Jordan is a well-known toothpaste brand in Denmark, but is it growing or stagnating? Using consumer panel data, brand tracking surveys, and the Dirichlet model, I diagnosed Jordan's market health and discovered a fascinating paradox:

"Jordan has incredibly loyal customers—but far too few of them."

This case study combines behavioral data (what people actually buy) with perceptual data (what people think and feel) to uncover why Jordan underperforms on reach despite excelling on loyalty.

Consumer Panel Data Brand Tracking Survey Dirichlet Model Double Jeopardy Law Mental Availability NPS Analysis

The Paradox: High Loyalty, Low Reach

The Dirichlet model provides expected benchmarks for brands based on their market share. When we compare Jordan's actual performance to these expectations, a striking pattern emerges:

📉

11%

Actual Penetration

Expected: 13.1%

🔄

2.03

Purchase Frequency

Expected: 1.27

💎

45.1%

Share of Category (SCR)

Expected: 19.2%

🎯

~19%

Growth Ceiling

Dirichlet Potential

💡 Key Insight

Jordan's loyalty metrics (frequency & SCR) are 60-135% above expectations, but penetration is 16% below. This is the classic "niche brand trap"—beloved by few, unknown to many.

Dirichlet Benchmark Comparison

The Dirichlet model predicts how brands should perform based on their size. Deviations from these benchmarks reveal structural strengths or weaknesses.

Jordan vs. Dirichlet Expected Performance

Comparing actual metrics against model predictions for a brand of Jordan's size

Metric	Jordan (Actual)	Dirichlet (Expected)	Deviation
Penetration	11.0%	13.1%	-16%
Purchase Frequency	2.03	1.27	+60%
Share of Category Requirements	0.451	0.192	+135%

⚠️ The Problem: In FMCG categories like toothpaste, brands grow by reaching more households, not by making existing customers more loyal. Jordan's exceptional loyalty cannot compensate for its penetration gap.

Category Context: The Danish Toothpaste Market

Toothpaste is a fully penetrated FMCG category—86% of Danish households purchased during the study period. Growth doesn't come from expanding the market; it comes from stealing share from competitors.

Brand Penetration Comparison

Percentage of households purchasing each brand

Market leaders like Colgate and Zendium dominate with broad availability and strong mental presence. Jordan competes in a crowded mid-tier alongside Sensodyne and Aquafresh, but lacks the distinctive positioning that would set it apart.

Duplication of Purchase: Who Shares Customers?

The duplication matrix reveals how customers flow between brands. A healthy brand should both send and receive customers from major competitors. Jordan shows a troubling imbalance:

Customer Flow: Jordan's Duplication Problem

Jordan's customers buy other brands, but others rarely buy Jordan

From Brand	→ Colgate	→ Zendium	→ Sensodyne	→ Jordan
Colgate buyers also buy...	—	12.5%	9.8%	1.9%
Zendium buyers also buy...	11.2%	—	8.7%	1.2%
Sensodyne buyers also buy...	10.5%	9.1%	—	0.5%
Jordan buyers also buy...	7.7%	8.8%	8.3%	—

💡 The Asymmetry Problem

Jordan's customers frequently buy Colgate (7.7%), Zendium (8.8%), and Sensodyne (8.3%). But these brands' customers rarely buy Jordan (0.5-1.9%). Jordan is losing the customer exchange battle.

Mental Availability: The Root Cause

Why does Jordan underperform on penetration? The brand tracking survey reveals the answer: Jordan has weak mental availability. Customers simply don't think of Jordan when they enter the toothpaste aisle.

Brand Awareness Funnel

Jordan's awareness drops significantly at each stage

🧠

~0%

Top-of-Mind Awareness

📢

Low

Unaided Recall

✋

Moderate

Aided Awareness

⭐

2-3%

Preferred Brand

Net Promoter Score: Passive, Not Passionate

Jordan's NPS reveals a brand that customers find "acceptable but forgettable." The distribution clusters heavily around score 6 (neutral), with few passionate promoters.

NPS Score Distribution

Respondent distribution across the 0-10 NPS scale

-45

Estimated NPS

-100 0 +100

Score Breakdown:
• Detractors (0-6): ~150+ respondents (dominated by 107 at score 6)
• Passives (7-8): Significant segment
• Promoters (9-10): Only ~68 respondents (45 at 9, 23 at 10)

Attribute Deviation: Where Jordan Falls Short

The brand tracking survey measured perceptions across key toothpaste attributes. Jordan underperforms on nearly every functional criterion that drives purchase decisions:

Brand Attribute Performance vs. Category Average

Positive = above average, Negative = below average

Attribute	Jordan vs. Category	Competitor Leader
Whitening	Significantly Below	Colgate
Fresh Breath	Below Average	Colgate
Sensitivity Relief	Significantly Below	Sensodyne
Premium Quality	Below Average	Zendium
Cavity Protection	Below Average	Colgate
Easy to Find	Above Average	—
Sustainable Brand	Slightly Above	—

⚠️ The Positioning Gap: Jordan's only positive associations are "easy to find" and "sustainable"—neither of which drive toothpaste purchases. The brand owns no key functional benefit that matters to consumers.

Strategic Recommendations

Based on this comprehensive diagnosis, Jordan needs to shift from a loyalty strategy to a penetration-first growth strategy. Here are four actionable recommendations:

Build Mental Availability at Key Category Entry Points

Jordan must become associated with the moments when people think "I need toothpaste." Target CEPs like morning routine, sensitivity concerns, and family care through consistent messaging.

Own ONE Functional Benefit

Instead of being average at everything, Jordan should dominate one attribute—perhaps "gentle daily care" or "family-friendly whitening." This gives consumers a reason to recall and choose Jordan.

Develop Distinctive Brand Assets

With TOM near 0%, Jordan's visual identity isn't cutting through. Invest in distinctive colors, packaging, and a memorable tagline that enables instant recognition on the shelf.

Increase Physical Availability for Light Buyers

Light buyers (who make occasional, routine purchases) drive category growth. Jordan needs better shelf placement, wider distribution, and visibility at eye level in high-traffic stores.

✅ The Opportunity: The Dirichlet model suggests Jordan's natural penetration ceiling is ~19%. With the right strategy, Jordan could grow its customer base by 70% (from 11% to 19%) without fundamental brand repositioning—just better availability and mental presence.

Conclusion

Jordan's case illustrates a common brand health problem: the loyalty trap. The brand has successfully retained a small, devoted customer base, but this success has masked a deeper failure to grow.

The data is clear:

Panel data shows Jordan reaches too few households (11% vs. 13.1% expected)
Dirichlet analysis confirms unusual loyalty but structural penetration weakness
Brand tracking reveals poor mental availability and no ownable functional benefit
Duplication patterns show Jordan loses the customer exchange to major brands
NPS distribution indicates passive satisfaction rather than passionate advocacy

The path forward is not more loyalty programs or CRM—it's broadening the brand's appeal and making Jordan impossible to ignore in everyday shopping situations. Only then can Jordan unlock its Dirichlet-implied growth potential.

"Brand growth comes from increasing penetration, not loyalty. Jordan must reach more buyers—not squeeze more from existing ones."
— Adapted from Byron Sharp, "How Brands Grow"

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